cc: Chagall 2022
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Alphabet City 
You think China’s going to invade Russia?
I truly believe that anything is possible. Follow some of the options. If Ukraine is leveled, then not much need for occupying forces. If need to occupy, then who will occupy? If Russia, then they are overloaded on their western front. If not Russia, then who else can fill that role. OK – that one is a bit out there. But what would we do if China backfilled the occupying force? What if Xi says, I will wait on Taiwan and other “chip shot” initiatives, and begin to consume the bear? Perhaps there is a fascist food chain.
I think Ukraine needs to be very cautious about their own talks with China and what they agree to. There is a lot of vacuum out there as NATO stands outside looking in, to some degree. Desperate times, desperate measures to fill that vacuum, can lead to poor decisions in the longer term.
Stalin and Hitler didn’t seem to have a problem cooperating until they didn’t. Each leveraged the efforts of the other as justification for said efforts. The history of that time, with its extremists right and left, the factioning of the parties, and the manipulation of populations through fear and confusion, is uncannily similar.
scary thought
Some last thoughts. I think of these things because it’s actually what I did for a living late in my career: consider the worst and then create mitigating and contingency plans/actions to address the risk. I prefer to discuss it here in comments, rather than create a post around it. Consider: Putin made veiled threats around nuclear options to his avail should anyone intervene. Xi has nuclear AND biological intimations at his avail to create fear, uncertainty, and doubt; biologicals with great payload than flu. We must be thinking about how to address the latter of that arsenal NOW. Remember how COVID originally spread and the politics of those first few days/weeks? Have we harvested those lessons learned? How quickly and how effectively can we shut down ALL ports of entry. On the economic side: How do we fight a war against a power to which we are beholden for steel and medical supplies? We are potentially beyond the point of mitigation on each of these fronts, and will need to begin thinking about real contingencies and acceptable levels of loss. Peace to all the world in our time.
Yeah, I have been thinking about these things too…